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| #384751 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 22.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 RICHARD REMAINS A RAGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS IN POORLY DEFINED BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV MISSION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE STORM HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT AND SFMR-ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KT. BASED ON THESE AND EARLIER BUOY DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICHARD WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND HOW STRONG RICHARD MIGHT BE AFTER CROSSING BELIZE AND MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. WHILE RICHARD HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS... THE G-IV DATA SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 300 MB BLOWING UNDER THE CIRRUS INTO THE STORM. THESE WINDS ARE CREATING ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADVECTING VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO THE CORE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF THIS VERIFIES RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...AND THE GFDL NO LONGER FORECASTS RICHARD TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED ON THIS...THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF RICHARD INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HR. AFTER EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN. HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS ON BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.8N 82.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 83.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 84.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 16.4N 86.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 88.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
