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| #384798 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 23.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DURING THAT TIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW THESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 15.8N 83.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 84.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 85.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.6N 87.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 89.1W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/0600Z 17.8N 91.6W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 93.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 28/0600Z 21.0N 94.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
