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| #384850 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 23.Oct.2010) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 ...RICHARD RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS COAST...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE * HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST. RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY... WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS LATE SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART |
