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| #384909 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 23.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION STILL LOOKING A LITTLE DESSICATED. BANDING FEATURES ARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THOUGH BANDS OF RAIN ARE NOW AFFECTING HONDURAS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE EARLIER RECON DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD TO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HONDURAS TO ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...LGEM...AND SHIPS MODELS. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NEW FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MODELS. DISSIPATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER RICHARD ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/7 KT. A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY TOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY. RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 16.1N 84.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 85.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 87.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.8N 88.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 90.4W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 93.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 27/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
