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| #384928 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:52 PM 23.Oct.2010) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 800 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 ...AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING RICHARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 84.4W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE * HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL * HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE LATE SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN |
