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| #384952 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 23.Oct.2010) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 ...LITTLE RICHARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 84.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE * HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL * HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. RICHARD IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE LATE SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN |
