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| #384999 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 24.Oct.2010) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010 ...RICHARD GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 85.5W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE * HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL * HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD SHOULD PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...AND RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF HONDURAS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
