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| #385005 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 24.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM WITHIN A RING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH TEMPERATURES OF -70C AND COLDER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE NOTED IN AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS AND IN BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE RICHARD...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND WITH THIS CYCLONE WHEN THE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES AT AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED AND RAGGED NATURE OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN QUADRANTS...BUT HAS GRADUALLY BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL. RICHARD IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON RICHARD MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF RICHARD NEAR THE BELIZE COAST IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 96-120 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AT ONLY 5-10 KT RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE BELIZE-YUCATAN COAST. IF THE EYE FEATURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO PHYSICAL REASONS WHY RICHARD SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE ARE NEAR 29.5C AND MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT RE-STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DUE TO THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 16.5N 85.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.8N 87.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 17.2N 89.0W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.6N 90.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0600Z 18.2N 91.4W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 28/0600Z 21.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
