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| #385099 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 24.Oct.2010) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010 ...RICHARD BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 88.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST. RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN BELIZE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
