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| #385102 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 24.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010 RICHARD APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE REPORTED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT EXITING THE EYE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED WAS 69 KT. HOWEVER...THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS ISSUES MEASURING THE SURFACE WINDS IN AREAS OF SHALLOW WATER SUCH AS IS THE CASE JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A DROPSONDE WAS 981 MB. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE AND BELIZE RADAR IMAGES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE COASTLINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOW UNLIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED STATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION. RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...OR ABOUT 285/11. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT AFTER A DAY OR SO...REFLECTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...SINCE RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO A WEAK CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...IT SHOULD THEN BE STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.2N 88.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 17.6N 89.4W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0600Z 18.7N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 92.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 27/1800Z 21.3N 94.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
