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| #385215 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 25.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 400 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS FALLEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...AND THE INNER- CORE IS LOSING DEFINITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE STORM REMAINS INLAND. ALTHOUGH RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS...THEREFORE...REMNANT LOW STATUS IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...RICHARD...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS OTHERWISE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.6N 89.6W 55 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 25/1800Z 18.1N 90.7W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/0600Z 18.9N 91.8W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 26/1800Z 20.0N 92.9W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 27/0600Z 21.1N 93.9W 25 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 28/0600Z 23.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART |
