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| #38529 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 09.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 THERE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKING BETTER THAN IT DID 6 HOURS AGO. WOULD PREFER TO SEE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE UPGRADING IRENE TO A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS. IRENE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WITH A TROF CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE MOTION OF IRENE WILL BRING IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N AND 64W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT 36HRS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TAKING IT GENERALLY ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH TIME WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND NOTED. THE GFS WAS QUITE THE OPPOSITE SHOWING THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS IT TOOK A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARDS THE FORMER SOLUTION AND FOR NOW BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL TREND. FORECASTER KORTY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.3N 53.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 22.7N 55.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.6N 57.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 60.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 26.3N 62.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 27.7N 64.6W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 29.1N 66.2W 55 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 30.0N 67.1W 55 KT |
