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| #385502 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 26.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RICHARD HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND WHAT CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WITH THE CYCLONE IS WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP DURING THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...THIS COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9. RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 19.4N 92.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 20.3N 93.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 27/0600Z 21.9N 94.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
