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| #386140 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 28.Oct.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010 SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC. BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. SINCE THERE IS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION. SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF. FOR NOW THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 27.3N 63.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 29.6N 65.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 32.8N 63.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 31/0000Z 39.3N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 01/0000Z 43.5N 45.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
