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| #386419 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 30.Oct.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT. AN EARLIER GAP IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS FILLED IN ...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT. ALSO...IMAGERY FROM THE RADAR ON MARTINIQUE AND A 0624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER THIS MORNING TO GET BETTER INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SHOWS A NEARLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25-KT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL...BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS... SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY RELAX AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE RECENT TRMM PASS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS OUT...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF TOMAS...WHICH SHOULD IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY A NORTHWARD TURN. THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD WITH THIS CYCLE...BUT THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS WHICH REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS QUITE SLOW DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE POTENTIAL NORTHWARD TURN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 12.9N 59.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 61.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 14.1N 63.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 14.6N 65.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 15.1N 68.1W 90 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 15.5N 71.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
