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| #386469 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 30.Oct.2010) TCDAT5 HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 SHARY REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHARY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 85-GHZ CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHARY IS BEING HELD AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MICROWAVE PRESENTATION AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND OVER COOLER WATER. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SHARY INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW LESS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE SHARY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS APPEAR UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/35. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL SHARY BECOMES ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 35.9N 55.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 38.0N 50.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
