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| #386485 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:41 PM 30.Oct.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 200 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 ...TOMAS LASHING ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 61.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * DOMINICA * TOBAGO * GRENADA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS AFTERNOON... AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH...110 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...82 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT...AND MARTINIQUE...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AT ANY TIME. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
