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| #38653 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 09.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 ALTHOUGH IRENE APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF RE-INTENSIFYING EARLIER TODAY...THAT TREND HAS NOT CONTINUED...AND AT THE MOMENT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE THE THE CYCLONE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MOSTLY NORTHERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...THERE HAS BEEN A PLUME OF OUTFLOW CIRRUS EMANATING NORTHWARD FROM IRENE. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE DISRUPTING THE SYSTEM...IS IN A LAYER BELOW THE OUTFLOW LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...IF IRENE SURVIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. HENCE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS...BUT IS NEVERTHELESS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS OF LITTLE HELP IN LOCATING THE CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 280/9. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND A CONTINUATION OF THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN 3-5 DAYS. A BIG QUESTION IS...HOW WILL IRENE RESPOND TO THIS RIDGE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD? THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS HIGHLY CREDIBLE...HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS HAD QUITE LOW TRACK ERRORS FOR IRENE...THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE ECMWF...OR THE NAVY VERSION OF THE GFDL...I.E. THE GFDN. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. SUBSTANTIAL SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS ALSO A REFLECTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IRENE WILL BE HEADED BY THAT TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 22.4N 55.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.0N 57.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.0N 59.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.0N 61.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 63.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 66.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 30.0N 71.0W 65 KT |
