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| #3866 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 04.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004 ALEX HAS BECOME ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS TONIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE DIRECTLY IN THE CENTER OF A CDO PATTERN WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED CIRCULAR OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5...OR 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...A DATA-T NUMBER OF T6.0...OR 115 KT FROM TAFB...A RAW ODT VALUE OF T5.7...OR 108 KT AT 05/0015Z...AND A 3-HR AODT AVERAGE OF T5.6...OR 105 KT. THE AVERAGE OF ALL THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS 106 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KT. THIS MAKES ALEX THE STRONGEST MAJOR HURRICANE ON RECORD TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 38N LATITUDE...WITH HURRICANE ELLEN IN 1973 COMING IN SECOND AT 100 KT. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO HURRICANES ON RECORD TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THAT SSTS ARE RUNNING MORE THAN 2C ABOVE AVERAGE IN THAT AREA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/22. ALEX IS STARTING TO ACCLERATE AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS LESS THAN A 30 NMI DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALONG THE ENTIRE TRACK...WHICH IS A TREMENDOUS TRIBUTE TO THE HARD WORK THAT MANY COMPUTER MODELERS HAVE PUT IN OVER THE YEARS. ALEX MAY HAVE PEAKED...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER A WARM POOL IN THE GULFSTREAM BETWEEN 60-65W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER... ONCE ALEX CROSSES NORTH OF 42N LATITUDE...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WHICH WILL HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 38.9N 64.8W 105 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 40.7N 60.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 43.8N 51.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 45.8N 41.1W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 07/0000Z 47.1N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
