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| #386627 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 31.Oct.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010 ...TOMAS STILL PRODUCING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 62.9W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MARTINIQUE REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
