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| #386741 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 31.Oct.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 64 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING TOMAS AS A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 65 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...280/10. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE TO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NORTHWARD TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...AND THEN LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LAST TRACK TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST POINTS ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND AND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.4N 64.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W 60 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W 90 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
