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| #386899 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 01.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010 TOMAS IS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/12. A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW OR TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THEN CAUSE TOMAS TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...MAINLY DUE TO THE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IT ENDS UP ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CAUSE A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TOMAS RE-INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME. THE NEW WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.6N 68.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 13.7N 70.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.8N 72.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 74.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 74.8W 55 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 74.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
