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| #387016 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 01.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010 THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED AT ONE POINT THIS EVENING...BUT A LINEAR BAND HAS RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED ABOUT 60-90 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.6/2.7 FROM THE OBJECTIVE ADT. ALTHOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE...IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24-36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND TOMAS WILL BE MOVING OVER A REGION OF INCREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TOMAS SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 3. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS CEASED MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10. TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TOMAS...IN ITS WEAKENED STATE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...THE DEEPER VORTEX SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SINCE THE HWRF AND GFDN APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN OUTLIERS AND THE NOGAPS DOES NOT EVEN PULL TOMAS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF... GFDL...AND UKMET. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST ON THIS CYCLE...MAINLY IN THE DAY 2 AND 3 TIME FRAME...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.5N 70.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.7N 72.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.9N 73.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.2N 74.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 73.5W 80 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/0000Z 21.0N 70.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER $$ FORECASTER BERG |
