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| #387072 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 02.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010 TOMAS HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM. OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ON THE FINAL PASS OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE OUTBOUND FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...THE MAXIMUM UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 44 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD...TO 45 KT...ON THIS ADVISORY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM...THE SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS TOMAS TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE RELIABLE LGEM GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY PREDICTION. BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER FIXES...THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...OR ABOUT 270/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE. TOMAS SHOULD BE STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE DEEPENING CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH COULD SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND NOT COMPLETELY PICK UP TOMAS. THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY CARRY IT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THAT POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.5N 72.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 75.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 75.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 75.2W 80 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 72.5W 70 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 70.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
