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| #387126 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 02.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010 TOMAS HAS CERTAINLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED BANDING SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER...THE STORM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT AROUND 0800 UTC. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB... RESPECTIVELY. THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE MOISTENING. THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FAVOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX GIVES A 48 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NOW AT OR JUST ABOVE THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER A FEW DAYS...LAND INTERACTION...DRIER AIR...AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...270/9. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT... TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.5N 72.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 90 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
