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| #387334 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 03.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010 TOMAS IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME PART OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT INCLUDES AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER JUST NORTH OF PANAMA. AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER TOMAS STILL HAS ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 -96 HR OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH 72-96 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT. THE GFDL STALLS THE CYCLONE JUST WEST OF HAITI. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECAST TOMAS TO SHEAR OFF WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. FINALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A CONTINUED EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FROM 96-120 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE CYCLONE NEEDS TO SURVIVE ITS CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION. IF THAT OCCURS... LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR OR SO IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN CONSOLIDATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES BOTH OF THESE THINGS WILL HAPPEN...AND THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS STILL CALL FOR TOMAS TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... FLOODING... AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.1N 75.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 76.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 76.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 16.8N 75.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 18.1N 74.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 72.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 71.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 69.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
