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| #387454 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 03.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS STILL NOT QUITE ALIGNED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THEY HAVE MOVED CLOSER TOGETHER DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...AND A 2219 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE BANDING THAN THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS NEAR THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR MAXIMA REPORTED BY NOAA. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF TOMAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE MODELS THAT DO NOT MOVE TOMAS OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF HAITI MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO SHOWS A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS MODEL WAS TOO HIGH YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BURNED US BEFORE BY DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...I AM INCLINED TO RAISE THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT TO HURRICANE STATUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW A COMPOSITE OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 330/5...THOUGH THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL WITH THE NHC INITIAL POSITION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TOMAS IS STEERING THE STORM FOR NOW...BUT A RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW...AND THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. TOMAS SHOULD BE ACCELERATING AS IT PASSES NEAR HAITI AS THE MID-LATITUDE LOW APPROACHES. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST WITH THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS STILL FOCUSED ON A TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL LEAVE TOMAS BEHIND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AT THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... FLOODING...AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.4N 75.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 16.1N 75.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.4N 75.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 74.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 72.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 24.0N 70.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 25.0N 68.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
