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| #387506 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 04.Nov.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010 ...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 76.1W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR HAITI OR EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.. MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH |
