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| #387598 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 04.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE NOAA PLANE HAS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT...AND A RECENT DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS AROUND 40 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE BELOW 997 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/7. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO...WITH THE CENTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT AND INCONSISTENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS TOMAS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF NOW CALL FOR TOMAS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH...WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE 6 HOUR OLD RUNS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...WHICH 6 HR AGO WAS CALLING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...NOW CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD TURN SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...BUT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE. TOMAS IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS PART OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 48 HR...THE INTENSITY AND EVENTUAL FATE OF TOMAS ARE STRONGLY TIED TO ITS TRACK. A NORTHWARD TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. AN EASTWARD TRACK WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN AN AREA OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. EITHER WAY...TOMAS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE 120 HR FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.3N 76.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 75.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 74.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 21.8N 73.1W 65 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 71.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 69.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 66.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
