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| #387619 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 PM 04.Nov.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 200 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010 ...RAINBANDS OF TOMAS MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 76.2W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY... MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
