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| #387788 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 05.Nov.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT TOMAS HAS BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 74.9W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING TODAY. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH |
