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| #387995 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 05.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010 BEFORE DEPARTING EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 57 KT AND A RISING CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE HAD ALSO BECOME A BIT DISHEVELED EARLIER THIS EVENING ...HOWEVER COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE AGAIN INCREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT...AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP DETERMINE IF TOMAS HAS WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER TOMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA COULD BE PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING FURTHER. CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING...AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS NOW TILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND THE RAPID DETERIORATION OF THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...TOMAS MAY HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 96 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS DESIGNED TO HANDLE CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS IS MOVING MORE TO THE RIGHT...OR EASTWARD...THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/11 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...WHICH IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CUTS OFF OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER TOMAS WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OR BE SHEARED APART AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION AND LIE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFDL...HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH A DEEPER CYCLONE. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH TO BE PULLED TOO FAR NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TRACKS OF THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT DAYS 3 AND 4...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS HAS PASSED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA... SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND TOMAS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.8N 72.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 22.4N 71.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.9N 70.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 70.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 25.0N 68.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 66.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 63.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS |
