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| #388197 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 06.Nov.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 PM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010 TOMAS HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY AN EYE MAY HAVE TRIED TO FORM. A PARTIAL EYEWALL WAS ALSO PRESENT IN THE 1743Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGERY. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS... HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS SHOWING LESS BANDING CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41046 INDICATES THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS NOW IMPACTING THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TOMAS. WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY SHOWED THAT THE FRONT HAS REACHED THAT LOCATION. THE INNER CORE OF TOMAS APPEARS...FOR THE MOMENT...TO BE UNAFFECTED BY THE COOLER/DRIER AIR. IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL SOON BEGIN ITS FINAL DEMISE WITH BOTH THE FRONTAL AIRMASS AND INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT BELOW BOTH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AFTER 48 H...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE ANTICIPATED VERY STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR REMOVES ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TOMAS COULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INSTEAD OF DEGENERATION...ESPECIALLY IF IT GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MORE STRONGLY INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING 30/13...AS IT IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE SHOULD RATHER ABRUPTLY DECELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST IN ABOUT 12-24 H...ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS EITHER DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR COMPLETELY ELIMINATED. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ADVECTED TOWARD THE EAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST BY THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FARTHER NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS QUICK AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 24.2N 70.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 25.2N 69.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 25.6N 68.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 25.8N 67.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 64.9W 35 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 28.5N 59.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 10/1800Z 31.5N 55.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN |
