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| #3933 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 06.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 06 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HR...AND IS NOW CONFINED TO A FEW CLUSTERS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM AFWA SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY EXTRATROPICAL...AND IF THIS IS NOT THE CASE NOW IT SHOULD BE BY LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THEN MERGING WITH A BAROLCINIC LOW OR FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 36 HR. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/45. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ALEX SHOULD TURN MORE EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT SLOW DOWN BEFORE MERGER...AND THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 46.5N 41.5W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 06/1800Z 47.0N 33.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 07/0600Z 47.0N 22.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 07/1800Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
