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| #39344 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 PM 13.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IRENE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN DURING ITS LIFETIME. ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED BUT REMAINS VERY VIGOROUS. IN FACT...THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 70 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1000 AND 999 MB SINCE 1500 UTC. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS AND...ALTHOUGH THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 31.2N 69.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 70.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 40.5N 60.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
