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| #39492 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 14.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 IRENE IS EXHIBITING A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST. MEASUREMENT OF THE BANDING USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE EASILY SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT...IN TERMS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD NOT INHIBIT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BEYOND THAT TIME VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES. THEREFORE IRENE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. ONE MORE AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO IRENE IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z TODAY TO CHECK THE POSITION AND INTENSITY. LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HEADING HAS BENT A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... 020/10. IRENE HAS CROSSED THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGUN RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. BY 3 DAYS THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF IRENE SHOULD MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 33.6N 69.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 35.1N 69.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 37.0N 67.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 38.6N 64.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 39.7N 61.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 42.5N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1200Z 49.5N 43.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1200Z...ABSORBED |
