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| #39580 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 14.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 THERE WERE 2 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON. THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 992 MB AND THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 72 KNOTS. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT IRENE IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS THE BEST ORGANIZED IT HAS EVER BEEN...WITH A FAINT EYE FEATURE AND GOOD SYMMETRY TO THE CDO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST. SINCE IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IT MAY VERY WELL BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. NO CHANGE IN THE ESTIMATED MOTION...020/10. IRENE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY WELL AND THERE HAS PROBABLY CAUSED SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE TRACK MODELS...AND CONTINUITY. IRENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 34.5N 69.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 35.7N 68.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 37.1N 66.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 38.4N 64.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 39.5N 61.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1800Z 52.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED |
