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| #39851 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 15.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005 AN EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY NEAR 80 KT. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST. IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DUCKING THE BELT OF WESTERLIES AND MUCH STRONGER SHEAR THAT LIES TO ITS NORTH. THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH USES THE GFS UPPER-LEVEL FORECAST FIELDS...PREDICTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35 KT WITHIN 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12 HOURS OR SO. WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...SUGGEST THAT IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS COULD MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SOON AS 48-72 HOURS FROM NOW. AS NOTED ABOVE...IRENE'S TRACK HAS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS NOW 070/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED YET...BUT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DUE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION...THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WIND RADII FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON INPUT FROM OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 36.7N 66.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 37.3N 64.0W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 38.4N 61.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 18/1800Z 50.5N 43.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED |
