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| #40340 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:28 PM 17.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005 THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MOTION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF IRENE WAS GREATLY AIDED BY MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS THIS EVENING. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2225Z INDICATED THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING AT 060/17...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO DISENGAGE FROM THE STILL STRONG CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2150Z SHOWED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 60 KT...BUT THAT THE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED INWARD. IN PARTICULAR...THE CIRCULATION IS SHRINKING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS A FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST THINKING...WHICH HAS IRENE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER... THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS ALREADY TAKEN IRENE TOO QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFS SHOWS IRENE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...BUT GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS IT MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER FOR IRENE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 38.8N 54.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 41.9N 50.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 48.0N 44.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
