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| #4071 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 09.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE OUTER CLOUD STRUCTURE...WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN...MAINLY DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION. MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 280/19. NO MATERIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING BEHIND IT. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 11.8N 62.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 12.5N 64.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 13.4N 68.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 14.3N 71.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 15.3N 74.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 79.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 82.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 22.0N 85.5W 70 KT |
