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| #4095 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 09.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE BANDING IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ARE EARLIER TODAY...NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE STILL APPEARS DISORGANIZED AS A NEW CENTER APPEARS TO BE FORMING FURTHER NORTH. ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD AND THE DEPRESSION IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS. MOTION CONTINUES AT A BRISK 285/20. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND STEER THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE DEPTH OF THE STORM AND THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NOGAPS MAINTAINS A SHALLOW STORM AND TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM WHICH TURNS MORE NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR AS THE GFDL OR GFS WHICH BOTH TAKE THE STORM OVER JAMAICA. FORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 12.4N 64.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 13.1N 66.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 14.2N 70.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.3N 73.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.4N 76.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 18.5N 80.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 20.8N 83.3W 65 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 86.0W 70 KT |
