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| #4122 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 10.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004 THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT...FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK OUT THE STORM LATER TODAY AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF CHARLEY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PARTICULARLY PROMINENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL GUIDANCE. CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...AND THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A REPORT FROM SHIP ELWR5 TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHARLEY. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION. CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 13.7N 68.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 14.5N 71.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 15.7N 75.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 78.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 80.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 84.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 24.0N 86.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 28.0N 87.0W 85 KT |
