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| #41283 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:37 PM 22.Aug.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 615 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM JOSE. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT... SUPPORTING ALMOST 45 KT AT THE SURFACE... WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. ADDITIONALLY... THE POSITION OF THE CENTER REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO... IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT WHILE THE STORM REMAINS OVER WATER. THE WIND RADII FORECAST... BASED IN PART ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA... NECESSITATES EXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLOWER MOTION... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2215Z 19.6N 95.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 96.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 97.1W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 98.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
