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| #41955 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 25.Aug.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 630 PM EDT...2230Z EARLIER TODAY NEAR THE BROWARD/MIAMI DADE COUNTY LINE. SINCE THEN...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WHERE THE CALM WAS EXPERIENCED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS... FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A STRONG AND LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. THIS SOUTHWEST DIP HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE HIGH WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KATRINA ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 25.5N 80.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 81.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 83.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.5N 84.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 31/0000Z 37.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND |
