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| #4206 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 11.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004 CHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE RAPID MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 295/21...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY BUT ALSO ON RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES THAT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTING A FASTER MOTION...BRINGING CHARLEY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON DAYS THREE AND FOUR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY DAY FOUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND THERE IS NO REASON WHY STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR...OTHER THAN BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 24 HOURS...WITH SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE WATERS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR STILL WEAK. SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 74.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.1N 77.3W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA 24HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 80.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 22.3N 81.8W 70 KT...OVER CUBA 48HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 82.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 79.5W 55 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 15/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
