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| #42305 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 27.Aug.2005) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005 1500Z SAT AUG 27 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.0W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 100SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.0W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
