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| #42599 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 28.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 DATA FROM A NEW NOAA BUOY...41041...LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAVE HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT A WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND IS LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS AND ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 62 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE. THERE ARE SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A LARGER GYRE AND ANY OF THEM...ESPECIALLY THE ONE FARTHER TO THE NORTH...COULD BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE PLACED ALONG 65 DEGREES WEST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.4N 46.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 48.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 53.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 20.5N 58.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 22.0N 61.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 64.0W 35 KT |
