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| #42744 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 AM 29.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY 41040 SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE MOMENT...THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. HOWEVER... IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CENTER WERE TO BE RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY WHERE THE BUOY INDICATED A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 KT. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 25 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORTING A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INDICATING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/12. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AS A SHEARED SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS SOLUTION. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.8N 49.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.8N 51.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.3N 53.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 20.7N 55.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 57.3W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 23.7N 59.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 63.0W 35 KT |
