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| #42941 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 29.Aug.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE HAVE BEEN NO OFFICIAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON WSR-88D DOPPLER VELOCITIES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 65 KT...HOWEVER THIS IS ADMITTEDLY A CRUDE ESTIMATE SINCE THE INLAND RATIO OF SURFACE WINDS TO VELOCITIES ALOFT IS NOT WELL DOCUMENTED. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS A WEAKENING RATE THAT IS MORE OR LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW STORM STRENGTH SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM NEARS THE GREAT LAKES...IT SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. KATRINA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CANADA LATER IN THE PERIOD. KATRINA HAS ACCELERATED A LITTLE MORE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/16. THE PRIMARY STEERING CURRENT IS BEING PROVIDED THE FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE EASTWARD-MOVING LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THIS STEERING SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND ACCELERATE SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND WINDS WILL REMAIN INTO THIS EVENING. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES. INLAND FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 31.9N 89.6W 65 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 30/0600Z 34.2N 89.0W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 30/1800Z 37.2N 87.3W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0600Z 40.5N 83.4W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1800Z 44.0N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/1800Z 50.0N 70.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 02/1800Z 53.0N 67.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED |
