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| #43035 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 29.Aug.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 KATRINA HAS WEAKENED FURTHER AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT THE SHIPS INLAND DECAY MODEL SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BE NEAR 50 KT. DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT AT 4000 FT FROM THE NWS/BIRMINGHAM RADAR ALSO ARE ROUGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS ESTIMATE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND GFS MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT KATRINA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND BECOME INDISTINCT WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/19...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY LAGGING BEHIND ON THE FORWARD SPEED...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BY 72 HOURS. EVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES. INLAND FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 33.5N 88.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 36.3N 87.1W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0000Z 39.4N 84.1W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/1200Z 42.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 01/0000Z 46.0N 73.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 02/0000Z 52.0N 68.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED |
